Sunday, 31 May 2020

A Post Pandemic Plan for Long Term Resilience

This is the text of a (quite long) email I sent to my MP; Ben Bradshaw detailing a set of policies that government ought to implement as part of a post-pandemic plan for the future.


Hi Ben,
I’m aware that the majority of your workload must be focused on helping your constituents in Exeter with the many problems that the coronavirus presents, and this will be a priority for you for many weeks to come. However, I do hope that you can read this proposal for building a better future as we move out of the pandemic.


It is important because we have at the moment 3 concurrent crises; COVID-19 together with the Climate and Ecological Emergencies. And crucially, the coronavirus crisis has given us impetus to resolve some of the more intractable aspects of the Climate and Ecological Emergencies.
Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable.
                                                                         ― Milton Friedman 
Lessons to Learn from COVID-19:

It’s important to look back at what the UK has learnt from this coronavirus crisis…
  • We’ve learnt that it is possible to quickly improve air quality, just by changing our own behaviour.
  • We’ve learnt that it’s possible for much of the working population to work at home.
  • We’ve learnt that the health and well-being of our people and our economy are in fact intrinsically interconnected.
  • We’ve learnt that the kindness of strangers and neighbours can remind us of the real power of our local communities.
  • We’ve learnt that it is possible to evolve and adapt to a very different world, almost overnight.
  • We’ve learnt that many of the people who play a vital role in keeping our lives ticking along are working in the poorest conditions, and often for the lowest pay.
What the British people think:
Two surveys indicate clearly that the will of the UK is moving towards a post pandemic world that is not business-as-usual:
  • A YouGov poll found that only 9% of UK people wanted to return to life just as it was pre COVID-19.(1)  The other 91% of us want to move on to a better world that this virus has given us a glimpse of.
  • And a more recent poll carried out by YouGov on behalf of Positive Money found that only 12% of the UK population want to prioritise economic growth over the health and well-being of citizens. (2)
So we now have this golden opportunity to reshape our world in a way that previously we might have thought was impossible.  As Julia Steinberger, Professor of Ecological Economics at the University of Leeds, has said...
Crucially, what is necessary for achieving well-being is the satisfaction of basic needs: not growth in consumption or economic activity. If our focus is the well-being of ourselves and other human beings, we should focus on sufficiency, rather than growth” 

We’ve been here before:
75 years ago, out of the ashes of World War II grew radical change; the United Nations, the Marshall Plan, Bretton Woods,  the Welfare State and the NHS, and eventually, the Common Market and the EU.  In times of great upheaval there is always this opportunity to reassess priorities, and move in a completely new direction.


We are now in that situation.  All futures are possible now.
Keeping Within the Doughnut:

In Kate Raworth’s book “Doughnut Economicsshe put forward the idea that in order to ensure that we can thrive and prosper as a society (the inside of the doughnut), and still remain within planetary limits (the outside of the doughnut), we will need to radically change our view about economic growth.

Indeed I believe that the only way to achieve quality of life for all living creatures and keep within planetary boundaries is to follow a degrowth strategy.  This is a concept that has been gaining ground over the past few years, and is starting to seed mainstream conversations.

For this reason, I think it is important that all MPs start to take this conversation seriously.  

And we are indebted to the following organisations for leading the debate:
  • All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Limits to Growth;
  • Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP) led by Tim Jackson (Author of “Prosperity without Growth”);
  • Wellbeing Economy Alliance (WEAll) which represents 123 organisations across the world.
Recent Manifestos for Genuine Sustainability and Equitability:
As a starting point for developing a post pandemic plan we should take our cue from a 5 point manifesto developed by 174 Netherlands-based scholars; Planning for Post-Corona: Five Proposals to Craft a Radically More Sustainable and Equal World”  (3)
  1. a move away from development focused on aggregate GDP growth to differentiate among sectors that can grow and need investment (the so-called critical public sectors, and clean energy, education, health and more) and sectors that need to radically degrow due to their fundamental unsustainability or their role in driving continuous and excessive consumption (especially private sector oil, gas, mining, advertising, and so forth);
  2. an economic framework focused on redistribution, which establishes a universal basic income rooted in a universal social policy system, a strong progressive taxation of income, profits and wealth, reduced working hours and job sharing, and recognizes care work and essential public services such as health and education for their intrinsic value;
  3. agricultural transformation towards regenerative agriculture based on biodiversity conservation, sustainable and mostly local and vegetarian food production, as well as fair agricultural employment conditions and wages;
  4. reduction of consumption and travel, with a drastic shift from luxury and wasteful consumption and travel to basic, necessary, sustainable and satisfying consumption and travel;
  5. debt cancellation, especially for workers and small business owners and for countries in the global south (both from richer countries and international financial institutions).
More recently an open letter signed by 1,161 international academics (including Jason Hickel, George Monbiot, Giorgos Kallis and Julia Steinberger) set out a plan based on the following 5 principles (4)
  1. Put life at the centre of our economic systems;
  2. Radically re-evaluate how much and what work is necessary for a good life for all;
  3. Organize society around the provision of essential goods and services;
  4. Democratise society;
  5. Base political and economic systems on the principle of solidarity;
Build Back Better:
In addition to the academic movement towards a new world not based on growth, there is a peoples’ movement for building a better world; Build Back Better.
Launched on the 21st May this is more than a movement, it is people’s agenda for recovery.  I anticipate if all elements of our society get together on this agenda there is nothing that we cannot achieve.
There are 5 principles to Build Back Better:
  1. Secure the health and needs of everyone in the UK now and into the future;
  2. Protect and invest in our public services;
  3. Rebuild society with a transformative Green New Deal;
  4. Invest in people;
  5. Build solidarity and community across borders.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………......
The Proposals:

I would like to propose in the following paragraphs how we in the UK (and Government in particular) might use the above principles and create a detailed policy framework for a genuinely sustainable and equitable future.


My proposed policies are based around a degrowth agenda, because ultimately it has to be recognised by the Government that it is just not possible to continuously grow the economy beyond its limits.


The 34 proposals indicated below are not a complete set of what is necessary.  But they are an indication of the kind of policies that will need to be considered if we are serious that what we are facing is an emergency.


It has now been over a year since the UK Parliament declared the Climate and Environmental Emergency and no real progress has been made.  It has now become urgent that parliament starts to treat this as if it were an emergency.
The Economy:
  1. The Government should downgrade its use of GDP as a measure of prosperity, with a view ultimately of dispensing with it altogether. (5)
  2. A dashboard of well-being indicators should be used as an alternative to GDP.
  3. The government should seek to set out a range of integrated policies that stem from a need for a significant and continuous reduction in the rate of material consumption.
Democracy:
  1. In order to increase the move to participatory and direct democracy, the Government should set up a broad range of Citizens Assemblies to cover the issues raised here, at all levels of government.
  2. Increased funding of Local Government should be prioritised, because many of the policies for a more sustainable UK will be enacted at a local level.  In addition, shoring up local democracy will engender more public participation.
  3. Government should create mechanisms to allow it to actively listen more sensitively to the voices of those most deeply affected by this pandemic: BAME communities, vulnerable women, young people, old people, single person families, poor income families etc. 
Public Ownership:
  1. If basic services are to be able to respond to local communities, then it is clear that those services that were privatised in the 1980s should be brought back into public ownership, where they can properly be integrated into the national plan for recovery.  Services like the railways, energy, water and telecommunications.
Employment:
  1. Government should focus less on the concept of full employment, and concentrate more on providing meaningful work, and sharing that work fairly amongst all citizens.
  2. Implement a Universal Basic Income for the UK. (6)
  3. Reduce the working week to 30 hours (or a 4 day week). Inevitably if we are to reduce consumption that will mean that we will be spending less, and therefore working less.  It is crucial within a fair society that we don’t have some people working too much and others hardly working at all.
Consumption:
  1. Taxation of consumption is likely to have limited impact since it is regressive, and does not help with the important requirement of achieving equity in our society.  Thus the UK must consider a fairer way of reducing consumption; Rationing.  Rationing of energy, rationing of high carbon foods and rationing of all forms of consumption (focussing on frivolous consumption).
  2. There should be a recognition that as shops selling non essential goods close down, then the spaces that they occupy will need to be redesigned for other purposes.  That process should start now.
  3. Advertising is one of the most powerful forces that drives consumption (especially unnecessary and damaging consumerism).  The Government should start the process of banning advertising, starting with the ugliness of outdoor advertising.  São Paulo, Chennai, Grenoble, Tehran and Paris have banned outdoor advertising.  The UK should be the first to ban it country-wide. (7) 
Caring, not Consumption:
  1. The coronavirus crisis has demonstrated that the NHS and the Social Care System has been neglected in the last 10 years.  It’s clear that this sector has to grow, and because of the need for the economy as a whole to contract, this should take the place of those parts of the economy dealing with consumption.
Taxation:
  1. To create a fairer UK, bring the top rate of income tax up the average of major European countries.  (55% for salaries over £100,000). (8)
  2. Instigate a new Wealth Tax which could raise up to £174 billion per annum. Inequality is fuelled by our tax system. We now need to focus on raising taxes from property, land and inheritance.  (9)
Renewable Energy:
  1. Yes, we need to replace Fossil Fuels with Renewable Energy as fast as we possibly can. By 2030 at the very latest.
  2. But we must also recognise that that in itself will not be enough to deal with either the Climate or Ecological Emergencies. The world is generating 8 billion more megawatt-hours of clean energy each year than in 2000. But over the same period, economic growth has caused energy demand to increase by a staggering 48 billion megawatt-hours.  Thus we also need to shrink the economy. (10)
Transport:
  1. On transport, the focus should be on a move towards Car Free Cities and Towns.  I have written a manifesto for creating a Car Free Exeter (11)  It starts with creating a car free city centre, but also indicates that we need to consider permeability filters (for bicycles. pedestrians, buses and emergency vehicles) on all non arterial routes.  Thus creating more no-through roads, opening up space for walking and cycling, together with bringing nature back to our cities. 
  2. Indeed this has already started in London with a proposal for one of the most extensive car free areas in any city in the world today.  And it will be installed within months. (12)
  3. The fuel duty escalator should be reinstated with an immediate 25p /litre increase in the fuel duty for petrol and diesel vehicles. (13)
  4. The government should announce that petrol and diesel fuel duty increases over the next 5 years will lead to a rise to £3 per litre.  This will enable motorists to plan ahead; either to reduce the need to travel or seek alternative modes of travel.
  5. The government should bring forward the phaseout date for sales of new Petrol and Diesel vehicles from 2040 to 2030 at the latest. (preferable sooner). (14)
  6. All local bus journeys should be free. (15)
Construction:
  1. Because the UK has the worst housing stock in Europe, this needs to be a focus for the construction industry.  25 million homes need to be upgraded to “passivhaus” standards. To achieve this in the next 10 years, we would need to refurbish 4 homes every minute. (16)
  2. The Construction Industry will need to expand to meet the challenge.  As such it should stop building new homes.  The UK already has sufficient homes for the foreseeable future.  Indeed there are 25 million empty bedrooms in the UK. (17)
  3. In addition 90% of UK homes are heated by gas or oil. (That’s 22 million homes).  These would need to be retrofitted to some form of renewable heating. (Currently ground-sourced heat pumps look to be the favourite).  The Government should set in place immediately a programme to achieve this as soon as possible.   
Food and Agriculture:
  1. The move from a largely meat based diet to a largely plant based diet has two advantages. Firstly it will reduce carbon and methane emissions. But secondly it will free up land for growing more trees (see proposal 32).  One way to enable this is to have a variable meat tax, with a higher rate for red meat where the methane emissions are greater.
  2. But ultimately it might be necessary to ration meat in order to properly deliver a zero carbon UK and halt biodiversity loss (see proposal 11).
Bailouts:
  1. There should be no bailouts of those businesses that have become the vectors for both COVID-19 and Climate Chaos; The Airline Industry, Cruise Industry and Mass Tourism. Note that travelling to from the UK to New York and back on the QEII, uses almost 7.6 times as much carbon per person as making the same journey by plane (18)
Carbon Capture and Storage:
  1. The UK must not have a plan that relies on CCS as a way of avoiding going fully zero carbon.  This is because it is a technology that is in its infancy and unlikely to be fully operational by 2050. In addition it is likely that Bio Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) might not actually achieve any “negative” emissions at all.(19)  
  2. Far better to simply grow more trees.  The most reliable way to capture and store carbon. Friends of the Earth suggests that the UK could double its area of tree cover to increase the forested area from 13% to 26%.  That’s 4.8 billion trees, or 160 million trees to be planted every year for the next 30 years.  That’s a challenging target … but achievable.
Population:
  1. The UK population is projected to rise from 66.6 million to 72.4 million by 2043 (20)   This 10% increase will make it even harder to meet ecological targets.  Thus the UK must start a conversation about limiting the number of children to 2.
  2. In order to assist the stabilisation of population in the UK, the Government should consider limiting Child Benefit to just one child.



It is possible that you might not agree with many of the above policies.  That’s excellent.  It enables a debate to be had about the more trickier issues.  But it also enables us to start the most important conversation of all.  Which I hope we will do.
Thank you.
Maurice Spurway


Email sent 27th May 2020

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